The Impact of Human Capital, Renewable Energy, and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions: A System Dynamics Simulation Modeling in the Airline Sector of South Asia

Akram, Hamza; Li, Jinchao; Asdullah, Muhammad; Rasheed, Tuba; Watto, Waqas

The Impact of Human Capital, Renewable Energy, and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions: A System Dynamics Simulation Modeling in the Airline Sector of South Asia

Akram, Hamza, Li, Jinchao, Asdullah, Muhammad ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1256-1158, Rasheed, Tuba and Watto, Waqas (2026) The Impact of Human Capital, Renewable Energy, and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions: A System Dynamics Simulation Modeling in the Airline Sector of South Asia. Sustainable Development.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.71160

Abstract

In the implementation of sustainable development goals (SDGs), researchers have greatly focused on factors such as human capital (HC), renewable energy (RE), economic growth (EG), and environmental preservation, which influence carbon (CO 2 ) emissions in South Asian countries, specifically Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. This research uses secondary data points from 1990 to 2024 from World Development Indicators to investigate variable relationships in the airline sector of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The collected data were analyzed by employing two analytical methods. First, it conducts stationarity tests through the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller to determine data stability. Second, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and System dynamic modeling (SD Modeling) via Python and Vensim software are used to analyze the impact of HC, RE, and EG on carbon emissions. The results reveal that both economic growth and renewable energy adoption, together with human capital investment, lead to diminished carbon emissions in South Asia. Research also demonstrates both the necessity of skilled personnel along with appropriate policy structures to achieve sustainable adoption of green technology that reduces airline sector CO 2 emissions. SD simulations determine that Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh require unified policies to integrate RE sources with enhanced education and climate management for sustainable airline growth. Thus, the work presents the systematic policy roadmap by which the governments in South Asia can operationalize SDG 7 and SDG 13 in the aviation industry by integrating clean energy transitions, institutional capacity building, and climate‐consistent regulatory reforms in sustainable aviation policies.