Artisanal Fishery and their Relationship with Mangrove extent, Rainfall, and Sea surface temperature in the Niger Delta Region

Nababa, Iliya Ishaku; Kuta, Abdullahi Ahmed; Adekola, Olalekan; Nwachukwu, Joseph I; Symeonakis, Elias; Cavan, Gina

Artisanal Fishery and their Relationship with Mangrove extent, Rainfall, and Sea surface temperature in the Niger Delta Region

Nababa, Iliya Ishaku ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9388-1614, Kuta, Abdullahi Ahmed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7048, Adekola, Olalekan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9747-0583, Nwachukwu, Joseph I, Symeonakis, Elias and Cavan, Gina (2026) Artisanal Fishery and their Relationship with Mangrove extent, Rainfall, and Sea surface temperature in the Niger Delta Region. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 98 (105071). p. 105071.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2026.105071

Abstract

Mangroves are a crucial habitat in tropical coastal ecosystems, providing essential nursery grounds for numerous fish and crustacean species. Mangrove degradation and loss negatively affect species across different stages of their life cycle, with significant implications for artisanal fisheries that depend on these habitats. In the Niger Delta Region (NDR), empirical studies quantitatively assessing the relationship between mangrove extent and artisanal fish landings remain limited, and official fisheries data are frequently incomplete or misreported, making reliable assessment challenging. This study investigated changes in artisanal fish landings, mangrove extent, rainfall, and sea surface temperature (SST) across four mangrove-fringed states (Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers) in the NDR over three time periods (1988, 2000, and 2013). To improve data reliability, artisanal fisheries landing data were re-estimated using the ‘catch reconstruction’ approach to account for misreporting and data gaps in official records. Also, the ‘catch reconstruction’ allowed for the number of fisherfolk engaged in full-time and part-time fishing across the NDR to be estimated for the first time ever. Descriptive analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between artisanal fisheries landings and mangrove coverage across the four states. Fish landings did not increase proportionally with mangrove extent, suggesting that additional environmental and anthropogenic factors including fishing pressure and population growth play an important role in determining fisheries production. Higher rainfall generally coincided with increased landings, particularly in 2013, indicating a positive association with fisheries productivity. In contrast, SST showed little variation relative to landings across the three time periods, suggesting a weak direct relationship with fisheries production. When fitted to a multiple regression model, mangrove coverage and SST in 2000 were the most significant variables in explaining variation in landings, accounting for approximately 96% of the variation for that period. Akwa Ibom state was the largest contributor to artisanal landings in the NDR, accounting for 32% of total landings in 1988 and 48% in both 2000 and 2013, despite having the lowest mangrove coverage among the four states. Fisherfolk estimates revealed that the number of fishermen and total landings across the NDR more than doubled between 1988 and 2013, strongly reflecting the influence of population growth on fisheries production in the region. This study presents the first quantitative assessment of the mangrove-fisheries relationship in the NDR and the wider Gulf of Guinea, as well as the first reliable estimates of artisanal fisher numbers for the region, providing a basis for integrated fisheries management that combines mangrove conservation, climate-informed planning, and regulation of fishing pressure in the Niger Delta.