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Prevalence of Non-Communicable Diseases and Associated Factors in South Africa: Evidence from National Income Dynamics Survey, 2008-2017.

Bolarinwa, Obasanjo ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9208-6408, Olagunju, Olalekan Seun, Budu, Eugene, Seidu, Abdul-Aziz, Odetokun, Ismail A, Al-Mustapha, Ahmad I, Shezi, Simangele Azande and Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (2020) Prevalence of Non-Communicable Diseases and Associated Factors in South Africa: Evidence from National Income Dynamics Survey, 2008-2017. Research Square.

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The unprecedented global increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) death incidences resulted in a joint initiative by the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to reduce NCD-related mortality by 25% by the year 2025. In this study, we ascertained the prevalence of NCDs in South Africa and its associated factors.


We used 5-panel waves secondary datasets conducted by national income dynamic survey (NIDS) from 2008 to 2017 among 64,735 South Africans. We calculated the prevalence of all selected NCDs separately and together for each year at the descriptive level. This was followed by the distribution of selected NCDs across the socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics of the respondents. Finally, we used binary logistic regression to assess NCDs' likelihood by the respondents’ socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics. The results were presented as crude odds ratios (cOR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals, signifying precision. Statistical significance was set at p-value < 0.05.


We found that, the prevalence of NCDs in South Africa was highest in the year 2012 (23.8%) and lowest in the year 2015 (15.2%). Over the 10-year period, the NCDs with highest and lowest prevalence were high blood pressure and cancer, respectively. Females [cOR = 1.88, 95% CI=1.79-1.96], smokers [cOR=2.01, 95% CI=1.85-2.19] and those very satisfied with life [cOR=1.10, 95% CI=1.04-1.17] were more likely to have atleast one NCDs. This persisted after adjusting for significant covariates: [aOR = 1.84, 95% CI=1.74-1.94], [aOR=1.49, 95% CI=1.35-1.65] and [aOR = 1.01, 95% CI=0.95-1.09] respectively.


South Africa’s department of health and other health agencies need to strengthen existing policies and develop new interventional frameworks that will deliberately consider various significant factors contributing to the high prevalence of NCDs identified in this study. This will reduce the NCDs prevalence and reduce the morbidity and mortality levels attributable to NCDs in the country.

Item Type: Article
Status: Published
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-118228/v1
School/Department: London Campus
URI: https://ray.yorksj.ac.uk/id/eprint/8459

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